The Intensifying Silicon Race
Issue #23- Thursday 14th November
Editor’s Note
Hello everyone,
The race for technological supremacy in the ever-evolving Great Power competition between the United States and China has hit a new level this week. Following a month of heightened tensions between Mainland China and Taiwan, it was reported that TSMC- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, the preeminent producer of advanced semi-conductors- would halt all exports of 7nm and more advanced semiconductor chips to China following the discovery that chips had ended up being used in Huawei processors, in violation of US sanctions placed on China.
The US remains incredibly reliant on the island for the import of advanced semiconductors, with over 90% of the US’ advanced chips imported from Taiwan. Despite recent onshoring efforts, domestic production is many years away from replacing the role of Taiwan. Exacerbating this, Taiwanese lawmakers blocked any attempts to offshore the manufacturing of 2nm chips, the most advanced silicon chip hitherto in production, across the world, including the US. Taiwan’s leadership fears that Taiwan will no longer hold a strategic advantage for continued US support once the US develops sufficient domestic capabilities to produce advanced semiconductors, and this has consequently shaped policy to ensure TSMC's technological edge remains in Taiwan.
That said, the ability of the United States to control the technological race and maintain its strategic advantage, particularly in the field of semiconductor production, is dwindling. For example, last year, the US government urged Dutch firm ASML to stop exporting their lithographic machines to China to curb China’s domestic manufacturing capabilities, but ASML continues to sell to the Chinese market, with ASML’s revenue from China accounting for 49% of its Q3 revenue. ASML was amongst many semiconductor firms that recently attended the highly-coveted CIIE trade fair in Shanghai where they showcased their latest technological advancements in what was dubbed “a fresh sign of their commitment to China in spite of mounting US sanctions on the country”. China’s domestic capabilities are also rapidly developing endogenously, from domestic production of EUV machines to counter ASML’s global monopoly to SMIC’s expanding capabilities to produce under 5nm semiconductor chips.
Semiconductors remain one of the key areas of the ongoing technology race between the United States and China, and the upcoming four years of a second Trump presidency will have profound reverberations on how the Great Power competition between the US and China takes shape over the coming decades.
- Alexander Belay, Dossier Editor
Welcome back to the Durham Dossier, where we will continue to deliver concise summaries of the week’s most pressing stories in global politics directly to your inbox. A huge welcome to all of the new analysts joining the Durham Dossier, and we look forward to carrying on the momentum since the beginning of this year to continue to deliver high-quality insights into geopolitics. For the next few weeks, we will be trying a new style of shorter summaries of the biggest stories of the week. If you have any feedback, please feel free to comment below or reach out via social media or email!
Regional Roundup
The World at a Glance…
Asia-Pacific
Brought to you by Avesta Afshari-Mehr, James Brine, Jack Berryman, and Seohyun Kim
Chinese Airshow Offers Competition Against US, Attracts Russian Attention
China has inaugurated its new stealth fighter 'J-35A' at the Zhuhai Airshow, demonstrating a keen desire to compete against US aerospace and attracting attention from Russian Security Council officer Sergei Shoigu. Shoigu explicitly expressed eagerness to counter American 'containment', expressing the importance of Russian-Chinese collaboration in this. Correspondent, Washington Post, Moscow Times
India launches the world’s first military exercise in space.
India has embarked on a landmark military space exercise ‘Antariksha Abhyas 2024’. Running from 11th to 13th November, the exercise brings together military leaders, defence agencies, and experts from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to explore the vulnerabilities of space-based assets and bolster India’s resilience against emerging threats. The Defence Post, India Today, Bharat Shakti
Polls Show a Majority of South Koreans Want President Yoon Impeached
A poll conducted by Flower Research, a polling agency registered with the Korean Central Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee, reveals that 65.1% of South Korean citizens believe President Yoon Suk Yeol should be impeached. Furthermore, a separate poll from Gallup Korea indicates that the president's approval rating stands at 17% as of the first week of November. Gallup Korea, Flower Research, Time
Rakhine Conflict Drives Famine
A famine is brewing in Myanmar's war-torn region of Rakhine, with around 2 million inhabitants potentially at risk. The region has slipped into food insecurity as a result of the ongoing civil conflict in the nation and blockades restricting access to both internal and external markets, curbing the flow of essential goods from Bangladesh and neighbouring states. Reuters, The Diplomat, AP News
Middle East and North Africa
Brought to you by Luke Sands, Lucy Chambers, Khalifah Ali, and Ronan Hickey
A Cautious Iranian-Saudi Détente
The chief of Saudi Arabia’s armed forces made a rare trip to Tehran this week to meet his Iranian counterpart to discuss increased security cooperation between the two nations. In a hotbed of regional hostilities, Riyadh and Tehran both hope to minimise the unpredictability of their once-fraught relationship, a continuation of their rapprochement agreement in March 2023. Al Jazeera, Reuters, Telegraph
Qatar Presses Pause On Negotiations
On Saturday Qatar announced that it would cease its role as a mediator between Hamas and Israel until such a time as both sides show their ‘willingness and seriousness’ about ending the war in Gaza. The Qatari Ministry for Foreign Affairs has rejected claims that the Hamas office in Doha, which was established in 2012, will be closed. France 24, Al Jazeera, BBC
Tit-for-Tat Strikes Between the US and Houthis
Houthi rebels unsuccessfully attacked US warships with at least eight drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three anti-ship cruise missiles. With the polarisation of the Houthi rebels not only to Saudi Arabia and Israel but also to their Western allies, these airstrikes seem to be a symbolic rise and resistance to the West. BBC, Al Jazeera, US Department of Defence
NEOM Faces Scale-Down As New Management Appointed
Nadhmi al-Nasr, CEO of the NEOM planned megacity, has stepped down from his role amid rumours of a scale-down of its objectives. The expensive project, estimated to have cost over US$500 billion, is a central part of the Saudi Arabian government’s ambitious Vision 2030 project but has faced numerous delays and increases in expenditure, as well as allegations of human rights violations. Business Insider, The Guardian, Reuters
Europe
Brought to you by Team Manager Bryn Jones, Avesta Afshari-Mehr, James Gordon, and Niamh Moynihan
German Government Collapses; Elections Likely in February
Germany's ruling Ampelkoalition (traffic light coalition) collapsed last week when Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked his Finance Minister Christian Lindner after refusing to allow Germany's debt-break rule to be loosened. Plans have been drawn up for a vote of no confidence in the Chancellor to be held in December, which would likely pave the way for early elections in February. Financial Times, Der Spiegel, Reuters
French Far-Right Splinters
Marine Le Pen's niece, Marion Maréchal, has split from Eric Zemmour's Reconquéte party and launched 'Identite-Libertes' in yet be another blow to the French far-right as they become an even further divided force against Macron's Renaissance party. However, Maréchal has still pledged to support her aunt in defeating Macron in 2027. The Times, Unherd, Telegraph
Uncertainty For Ukraine After Trump Win
Zelensky’s post-election call with Trump involved no discussions of potential peace talks as Ukraine continues to hope that President Trump will seek a swift end to American support that would greatly harm the Ukrainian war effort. This coincided with calls from Keir Starmer urging Biden to release funds of $20 billion to Ukraine before Trump takes office. The Guardian, BBC News, Telegraph
European Union Set To Significantly Increase Defence Spending
The European Union is preparing to redirect approximately a third of its €392 billion budget (2021-2027) to defence and security, prompted by Donald Trump’s threats over NATO spending. The so-called “cohesion funds” will now support increased investment in dual-use products such as drones. Financial Times, Euronews, France 24
North America
Brought to you by Team Manager Humphrey Schyler, Max Garthwaite, James Bryant, and Ellie Bishop
Key Foreign Policy Positions Filled by Trump
President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor and is expected to name Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. Waltz, a previous supporter of Ukraine aid, has recently voiced concerns about escalating U.S. involvement in the conflict. Meanwhile, Rubio aims to pivot U.S. foreign policy focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific, emphasising competition with China. U.S News, WSJ, New York Times
Trump's Defence Secretary Pick Causes Controversy
On Tuesday, President-elect Trump selected Fox News host and veteran Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defence. A controversial figure who has suggested that the US ignore its obligations under the Geneva Convention, Trump lauded Hegseth's military career and showed his respect for Hegseth being a media personality and bestselling author. AP News, CNN, Shawn Ryan Show
Spirit Plane Shot at on the way to Hati
Spirit Airlines Flight 951 came under fire from a group in the Caribbean nation of Haiti. This incident comes less than a month after a United Nations helicopter came under similar fire from a similar group, marking a significant escalation in the conflict-ridden nation. Spirt, United Airlines and Jet Blue have announced that all flights are now cancelled for the forcible future. BBC, The Independent, RTE
‘No Price Tag’ for Deportations, Says Trump
President-elect Donald Trump caused waves in a post-election interview by stating that his widely reported mass deportation plans would be carried out regardless of price. The American Immigration Council found that deporting one million migrants per year from the United States would cost upwards of $88 billion. NBC News, ABC News, The Independent
Sub-Saharan Africa
Brought to you by Frederick Larsen, Archie Longrigg, and Jack Berryman
Opposition Landslide Win in Mauritius
The Alliance of Change has won 60 of 64 seats in the recent Mauritian general election. Ramgoolam's campaign focused on the cost of living crisis, which has worsened despite 7% economic growth in 2023, and addressing corruption in the island nation. The campaigns were marred by a phone-tapping scandal, with recorded phone calls of politicians, diplomats and journalists leaked online. Al Jazeera, BBC, Reuters
Russia’s Expanding Influence in Africa; Instructors Sent To Equatorial Guinea
Russia has deployed around 200 military instructors to Equatorial Guinea to protect the decades-long Presidency of Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo. This is the latest example of Russia’s bid to extend its influence across Africa amid declining Western influence. Reuters, VOA Africa, Business Insider
Somaliland Heads to the Polls
Somalilanders are heading to vote amidst a potential opportunity for international recognition of the unrecognised breakaway state. The incumbent President Muse Abdi is running for reelection, whilst the government he heads is seeking to finalise a deal with Ethiopia that would see Addis Ababa gain access to a slice of coastal land in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Hargeisa's independence. Reuters, Al Jazeera, AP News
Latin America
Brought to you by William Radley, Cayden Gill, Liam Reilly, and Emily Worlock
Ecuador's VP Suspension Amid Election Tension
Vice President Veronica Abad was suspended due to an "unjustified abandonment" of her responsibilities, building on ongoing tensions between President Noboa and Abad just 3 months before the country's elections. Whilst serving as an ambassador to Israel, Abad reportedly neglected orders to leave the country for Turkey due to the ensuing conflict, touching down in Turkey 8 days after the request was made. AP News, VOA News, Newser
China’s $3.6 Billion Peruvian Port: Trade Hub or Strategic Foothold?
The newly constructed port in Chancay, Peru, is set to begin operations to coincide with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming tour of Latin America. The port, potentially becoming a major hub within South American trade, could further shift regional trade dynamics towards China. Financial Times, The Times, The Telegraph
Haitian Prime Minister Ousted
Haitian Prime Minister Gary Conille has been fired following an executive order filed by eight council members. Conille has described this as illegal and raised 'serious concerns' for the future of Haiti. As a result, Haiti now stands with neither a president nor a parliament. The Independent, BBC, WFIN
European Farmers' Fears for Free Trade with Mercosur Countries
After decades of discussions, and in the context of China’s increasing economic influence over South America, the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement is planned to conclude this December at the Mercosur Summit. However, this deal is the source of much contention amongst French farmers, who claim a deal would negatively impact European agriculture. Reuters, Politico, Le Monde
Policy Perspectives
International Law
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Patrick Brice and Daniel Hillier, Jennifer Walker-Owen, and James Bryant
ICC Chief Under Investigation
Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan is under investigation for sexual misconduct. Mr Khan has welcomed the investigation, in which these allegations are believed to have come from a member of his office. Mr Khan has denied the allegations and will continue in his role pending the conclusion of the investigation. France 24, BBC, News AU
Controversy-Mired COP 29 Conference Kicks Off in Azerbaijan
For the second consecutive year, the UN Climate Conference is being held in a petrostate and is facing a legitimacy crisis. The hosting Azerbaijani President told the conference that oil and gas are a 'gift of god' and announced intent to increase gas production by a third. BBC, The Guardian, Reuters
Shell Wins Landmark Climate Change Case
A Dutch appeals court reversed a 2021 ruling that had ordered Shell to cut its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. Originally, the multinational oil and gas company was held accountable for corporate and customer emissions, requiring more proactive climate action, but the appeals court sided with Shell's argument that the government should regulate corporate climate responsibilities instead of imposing individual obligations through the judiciary. BBC, AP News, The Columbian
Israel Breaches 50-year-old Ceasefire
The UN has warned Israel of their breach of the 50-year-old ceasefire along the 'Alpha-Line' which separates the occupied Golan Heights and Syria. New satellite images show Israeli construction falls within the UN-patrolled demilitarised zone. While Israel has denied it is a breach of international law, Syrian authorities have 'strongly protested' over this construction. The Guardian, European Union, BBC
Global Conflicts
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Josh Bernard Ross and Archie Mackesy, Edward Trehearn, and Zara Hossain
Boko Haram Militants Flee Chad After Clash With Army
A major clash between Boko Haram militants and the Chadian army resulted in the reported deaths of 15 Chadian soldiers and 96 Boko Haram fighters, as well as many more being wounded. Reports now suggest that soldiers belonging to the militant group have been forced to flee the country, with many crossing the borders into neighbouring Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria. Reuters, DW, VOA Africa
Trouble for Russia in Kursk
Russian and North Korean troops were stalled by the Ukrainian 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, with an estimated 1,950 casualties across 10 units. The 47th's Press Officer declared the failed offensive a "dark day" for Russia, suffering the most losses on a single day during the conflict. RBC News, BBC, The Telegraph
IDF Operations in Lebanon Continue; Impacts of Iran Strikes Become Clearer
Israel's precision strikes on Iran on 25th October appear to have caused significant damage to critical Iranian military infrastructure, with analysis from ISW suggesting that the strikes on around 20 sites included the country's air defence network as well as facilities manufacturing missiles and drones. ISW, Reuters, DW
Qatar Stalls Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks
Qatar steps back as a mediator between Israel and Hamas until both parties demonstrate a genuine effort to work towards peace; this is after the latest set of short-term ceasefire negotiations in mid-October were rejected by Hamas. Qatar’s refusal to host Hamas in Doha will force the group to relocate and increase the pressure to reach a meaningful ceasefire agreement.Sky News, Financial Times, BBC
Global Economy and Tech
Brought to you by Avesta Afshari-Mehr, Jennifer Walker-Owen, and Tsz Yui Toby Tsui
Growing Chinese Economic influence in South America
Chinese Chairman Xi departed for Lima in anticipation of the inauguration of the newly-built Chinese-funded Port of Chancay. Wider Chinese-Latin American trade relations have long been strengthened through a growing Chinese stream of investments. Financial Times, Voice of America, Reuters
Big Tech Faces Shakeup Under Trump
Trump’s administration promises a new approach to Tech, namely in the field of AI, antitrust, and mergers & acquisitions. Trump has, however, already threatened a repeal of Biden's Chips Act and a repeal of Biden's executive order on AI regulation. BBC, The Telegraph, The Guardian
Debate Over Australia's New Social Media Ban
Heavy discourse has taken over Australia over new plans to ban social media for under 16s. As a result, some have commended the move, agreeing that children are not ready to effectively navigate the online world yet, whilst significant backlash has ensued from others, including Australia's eSafety Commissioner, who stated that such a ban would result in children using sites secretly. The Conversation, SBS News
Climate and Environment
Brought to you by Team Manager Megan Spratt, Adit Banta, and Bella Jarvis
Climate Finance and Global Tensions at COP29
The 29th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP) is underway this week in Baku, Azerbaijan, providing a crucial platform for world leaders to reflect on progress since the Paris Agreement and propose future-defining solutions. While the summit began amid criticism of Azerbaijan’s green transition plans, discussions soon shifted to the central theme: climate financing. WE Forum, Financial Times, Science
The Economic Effects of Climate Change
The current COP29 has sparked discussions about the economic impacts of extreme weather conditions across the world and the ability of states to recover following such events. In the last two years, the monetary impact of droughts, fires and earthquakes across the world has totalled a sum of US$415 billion, with this figure likely to rise. The Guardian, Reuters, Economic Times
COP29 Chief Promotes Fossil Fuel Deals
The Chief Executive of Azerbaijan's COP29 team was filmed negotiating fossil fuel deals at the climate summit, sparking controversy at the outset of COP29. This incident marks the second consecutive year that COP has been criticized for prioritizing oil deals over climate solutions. The Guardian, BBC, Big Issue
Global Health
Brought to you by Team Manager Thecla Richardson, Lucia Lallana, Ishita Sehgal, and Sam Alford
50 States Denounce Cyberattacks on Healthcare Providers.
At the UN Security Council on November 8th, the head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, discussed how ransomware attacks on healthcare providers, such as hospitals, risk lives and threaten international security. More than fifty countries issued a joint statement denouncing such attacks and echoing the sentiments of Ghebreyesus’ address. United Nations, Arab News, United Nations
UK-Jordan Prosthetics Venture Brings Hope to Wounded Palestinians
Israel's war on Gaza has resulted in at least 94,000 people injured, over 24,000 of these injuries are life-changing, including serious burns, trauma to the head, and spine and limb amputations. In response, a Jordan-led initiative has partnered with two UK-based prosthetic companies to develop and deliver prosthetic limbs to the victims of the ongoing violence in Gaza. BBC, The New Arab, Arab News
WHO Urges Health-Centric Climate Action at COP29
The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasised that climate change is a health crisis, urging global leaders to prioritise health within all climate policies and actions to protect vulnerable populations. The WHO’s COP29 Special Report and Healthy NDCs guidance stresses the need for integrated governance, economic realignment away from fossil fuels, and investment in proven climate-health interventions. WHO, WE Forum, Rockefeller Foundation
100 Governments to Ban Childhood Violence
Following the First Global Ministerial Conference on Ending Violence Against Children in Colombia in November 2024, over 100 governments have pledged historic commitments to ban childhood violence, which is experienced by over half of all children globally, resulting in 40,000 preventable deaths each year. WHO, Al Jazeera, Global Ministerial Conference
Human Rights
Brought to you by Mercedes Cheung, Hayden Cheung, Mila Roth, and William Radley
Turkmenistan Nationals Denied Passport Renewals Abroad Face Severe Hardship
A recent report by HRW and the Turkmenistan Helsinki Foundation reveals that Turkmen authorities' refusal to renew passports for citizens abroad significantly restricts their freedom of movement and access to essential services. The report documents the hardships of undocumented Turkmen migrants, who face challenges in securing employment, housing, education, and healthcare. Human Rights Watch, Jurist, Human Rights Watch
David Lammy Raises China’s Human Rights Concerns
During the meeting, Foreign Secretary David Lammy reflected to the Chinese authorities on the concerns of the West towards the potential violation of human rights to the Uyghurs in Tibet. He also raised concerns about the implementation of the National Security Law and the treatment towards Jimmy Lai, a British national who was detained under the law by HKSAR authorities. The Guardian, UK Government, Financial Times
Concerns Over Iraq’s Proposed Personal Status Law Amendments
Proposed amendments to Iraq’s Personal Status Law (PSL) 188 could institutionalise gender discrimination and increase exploitation risks for Iraqi women and children, permitting marriages outside the formal court system and allowing clerics authority over family matters, including setting the legal marriage age as low as nine years old. Wilson Center, Human Rights Watch, Brookings Institution
AIPAC Lobby’s US State Department
The US State Department has concluded that Israel is not currently violating humanitarian assistance to Gaza. This report follows a list of demands set by US officials to Israeli ministers, ensuring dire humanitarian needs are met. As of today, eight international aid groups have discredited this report, claiming Israel has failed to meet the demands required. BBC, The Guardian, Reuters
Battleships
Brought to you by Team Manager Jacob Godley, Finley Smith, and Coreillia Wilson
The UK's First Nuclear Powered Submarine to be Dismantled
Babcock has awarded a recycling contract for Astute class submarine HMS Swiftsure to KDC Veolia Decommissioning Services (KDCV), this follows on from plans to ensure that the decommissioned submarine is not dismantled without good cause as around 90% of the structure is on track to be reused or recycled. Naval Today, Baird Maritime, Naval News
Another Setback: HMS Prince of Wales Delayed, Highlighting UK Naval Struggles
'Pride of the British fleet', HMS Prince of Wales, experienced a minor technical fault, delaying its departure from port earlier this week. This fault is yet another warning sign surrounding the capabilities of the UK's two active aircraft carriers, HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Queen Elizabeth, both of which have experienced a series of technical faults in recent years. Daily Express, The Independent, The Standard
Barrow Shipyard Fire Poses Further Delays to Astute Class Programme
A ‘significant’ fire broke out early in the Devonshire Dockhall at the BAE Systems site in Barrow-in-Furness, the sole manufacturing facility for nuclear-powered submarines in the UK. While this is an isolated incident caused by industrial equipment, and the rest of the facility remaining operational, the question of its impact on construction is raised, including smoke damage and delivery schedules. UK Defence Journal, Naval Technology, Navy Lookout