Europe's Farmageddon
ISSUE #015 – Thursday 29th February
Editor’s Note
Good Morning,
Armageddon, the prophesied gathering of armies to do battle during the end of times, might be far off, but the invasion of Europe’s streets by protesting farmers suggests the end of the EU’s ability to represent its citizens and signals that the agricultural industry, much like the broader European economy, is falling behind.
From Madrid to Bucharest, Europe has witnessed mass protests from farmers demonstrating their dissent against EU agricultural policies over the last few weeks. High costs, low product prices, cheap non-EU imports and strict EU environment restrictions have all fuelled unrest across the continent. Farmers in Poland and Germany expressed anger at the influx of duty-free grain imports from Ukraine, aimed at keeping the war-torn country’s agricultural industry alive, where they blockaded Polish-German border crossings to prevent Ukrainian goods from entering the European market. Border crossings between the EU’s eastern members have also been blocked by a joint coalition of Czech, Slovakian, and Hungarian farmers protesting the Green New Deal. Meanwhile, tractors sieged Paris by blocking eight motorways leading into the city, and riot police clashed with farmers spraying manure and lighting tyre fires in Brussels.
But the threat goes beyond egg-throwing and tractor demonstrations. The success of the populist Farmer Citizen Movement in the recent Dutch elections, taking 19% of the vote in the regional elections, forbodes the rising agrarian populist sentiment. This is a prime opportunity for far-right politicians to garner support ahead of upcoming European Parliament elections and sell a narrative of urban elites exploiting hard-working rural folk. A target is also painted on Brussels’ Green Deal and its attempt to reach ambitious climate goals by slashing emissions through overhauling the continent’s energy and transportation systems and reducing pesticides and fertilisers. Fears are that an expansion of climate restrictions into the general public’s life will attract the vote of many moderates towards far-right reactionary parties.
However, EU policymakers have been quick to backtrack: a decades-long EU trade deal with South America has been scrapped, as have planned fuel levies and greenhouse emission caps. Amendments to the Common Agricultural Policy have also been made, cutting red tape around subsidies. Yet the broader issues are not confined to the agricultural industry, which makes up only 1.4% of the EU’s GDP. Growing calls to curtail its flagship environment deal have impacted the EU’s international position as a climate policy pioneer; the rolling back of concessions to Ukrainian imports risks jeopardising the country’s already severely damaged economy as it continues to fight off a Russian invasion; and the failure of many European farms to modernise and expand (almost two-thirds are smaller than five hectares) has allowed Indian, Australasian, and South American agricultural exports to dominate the markets.
It is clear that the state of the EU’s agricultural industry is unsustainable and quickly falling behind global competitors. Not only do politicians face a domestic front of angry farmers willing to shut cities down to maintain their untenable concessions and subsidies, but the repercussions risk undermining Europe as a climate frontrunner and a model of united economic prosperity.
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Regional Roundup
The World at a Glance…
Europe
Brought to you by Tommaso Quaglia and Archie Mackesy
EU Debates Funding Ukraine War with Frozen Russian Assets
Ursula Von Der Leyen has proposed that profits from the c. €300 billion of Russian assets under sanction could fund the Ukrainian army, amidst concerns within the EU about the legality of such a process. With critical sentiments towards NATO rising in the USA, these proposals, which could allegedly yield around €3 billion every year, show an increasing concern within European states over maintaining the momentum against Russian aggression. Financial Times, EuroNews, Reuters
Hungary Ends Sweden Veto
The Hungarian parliament has voted to allow Sweden to become a member of NATO, ending its 21-month veto under the direction of Prime Minister Victor Orban. This signals an end to Sweden's long-established neutrality and a blow to Russia as this completes NATO encirclement of the Baltic Sea, following Finland's accession to the alliance last year. This may be especially bitter as part of Putin's reasoning for the invasion was to prevent any 'NATO expansion'. The Guardian, Financial Times, BBC
Americas
Brought to you by Humphrey Schuyler, Archie Haywood, and Hugo Negron-Jennings
Mexican President Denies Cartel Connections
Recent news reports have accused Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the current President of Mexico, of having financial ties to cartel groups, starting in 2006 with an unsuccessful bid for President. Both the US DOJ and the Biden administration have attempted to distance themselves from further reports that they investigated these allegations, claiming that no official investigation was ever opened. AMLO has strongly denied the accusations, but this places further strain on US-Mexican relations which recently have seen an increase in tensions regarding drug war cooperation and DEA involvement in Mexico. Additionally, this further complicates the upcoming Mexican election where López Obrador’s protégé Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo currently holds a strong lead in polls. The Guardian, AP, Washington Post
Michigan Primary Showdown
On Tuesday, both the Republicans and the Democrats held their respective presidential primary in Michigan. Biden won the state primary, amassing 81% of the total votes. Notably, 13% of the Democratic electorate in that state, primarily Arab-Americans of Muslim faith, voted uncommitted, in protest of Biden's stance on the war in Gaza. On the other hand, Trump won the GOP state primary by a 38-point lead over Haley, marking his fifth consecutive victory over his opponent. Haley has expressed unwillingness to concede and promised to carry the campaign onward till Super Tuesday. The dissent amongst the Muslim community has caught the attention of many political analysts. The Democrats are growing increasingly worried over the loss of the support from that demographic, as Trump has sought to capitalize on this opportunity and canvass disheartened Muslim voters. BBC, WSJ, X
Mexico Experiencing Electoral Reform Protests
Mexico City has been swept with protests this week decrying President AMLO's attempt at electoral reforms which include slashing funding for the National Electoral Institute, limiting electoral spending and scaling back proportional representation in some seats. Proponents of the reforms argue that they will help combat elitism and redirect unnecessary spending into water and education. Opponents worry that the reforms will embolden larger political parties whilst simultaneously increasing anxiety about the transparency of elections due to a weakened oversight body. NPR, Wilson Center, Reuters
Asia
Brought to you by Team Manager Jacob Godley, Deiniol Brown, Sarin Kulatileka, and George Baker
China’s Vaccine Diplomacy Revealed
A study published in the Journal of World Development focussing on the political context of Chinese COVID-19 vaccine donations has concluded there was a significant link between political stance towards China’s human rights record and vaccine donations. This study adds to mounting evidence on the politicisation of global aid and economic relations; polarising between the two main actors of the US and China, however, China’s vaccine diplomacy attempting to improve ties with neutral countries, particularly in Southeast Asia has been largely a failure, and therefore has only consolidated existing divisions. Science Direct, Nature, Nikkei
Concern Over Chinese Naval Presence in Philippine Fishing Grounds
The President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has called the presence of the Chinese navy in disputed Philippine-claimed waters “worrisome”. The Philippine Coast Guard spotted Chinese naval vessels in the vicinity of the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, which has been the subject of frequent tension between China and the Philippines in recent years. The Philippine government has pledged to continue support for the nation’s fisherfolk, whose income relies on access to the contested waters. Reuters, South China Morning Post, The Manila Times
Chinese Cybersecurity Firm Faces Leak
Chinese cybersecurity firm, I-Soon, has been caught in a scandal following a data leak which revealed harvested data on targets such as NATO and the FCDO. The data also shows a spreadsheet outlining neighbouring Taiwan's road-mapping data which could prove beneficial to the PLA if an invasion were to occur. This leak allows an insight into the true extent of China's hacking industry and how the CCP could use hackers to infiltrate foreign government organisations and large companies. The Guardian, Washington Post, New York Times
Nikkei Index Hits Record High
Japan's Nikkei Index has exceeded its previous 1989 high, closing at 39,098.68 last Thursday, following a growth of 17.5% in 2024 alone. Ending years of economic stagnation, this rise reflects strong corporate earnings following years of government reforms in response to the Nikkei's 2009 low, a weakening Yen, and increased attraction from foreign investors. In the short term, US semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia's most recent quarterly profits were responsible for the rise in Japanese chip-related stocks (Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Screen Holdings) contributing to the Nikkei's performance. Financial Time, CNN, BBC
Middle East and North Africa
Brought to you by Team Leader Alexander Belay, Raphaëlle Parmentier, and Riyad Babayev Marmedova
Fourth Round of Strikes Against Houthis
The US and the UK launched another round of strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, striking 18 targets across eight locations in an attempt to weaken the military capabilities as Houthi strikes in the Red Sea escalate, primarily targeting underground weapons storage facilities and drone facilities. Whilst the strikes were in response to the shooting down of a US drone and an attack on a British-owned commercial ship earlier in the week, the strikes were nonetheless condemned by various international actors, with Iran’s foreign ministry claiming the strikes were an escalatory threat to the region. New York Times, Politico, RUDAW
Former Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki Gets Eight-Year Prison Sentence
Former Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki has been sentenced to eight years in absentia. Moncef Marzouki was the first democratically elected president in Tunisia after the Arab Spring and a virulent critic of the current president, Kaïs Saed. Currently living in Paris, Moncef Marzouki has been accused of attempting to overthrow the government, inciting disorder, pillaging, and encouraging citizens to fight against each other. He has already been convicted of conspiring against the Tunisian state after calling on Western powers to stop working with an increasingly authoritarian Tunisia. Moncef Marzouki, 78, has long symbolised the fight for democracy in Tunisia, even though his image has become blurred by his controversial alliance with the Islamic Conservative Ennahdha party, which helped him win the presidential election. Middle East Eye, The Guardian, Le Monde
Marvellous Monday in Gaza?
Israel and Hamas have continued their ceasefire talks in Paris, certainly opposed to Prime Minister Netanyahu's idea of fighting until Hamas is eradicated from the map. Despite the close US-Israel relations, President Biden has tended to disagree with his Israeli counterpart about a ceasefire and its terms, since the former has tended to advocate for the end of this full-scale operation. The important question here is whether a ceasefire would entail Israeli troops leaving the Gaza Strip, something which Prime Minister Netanyahu would certainly be opposed to since he sees the Gaza Strip as an existential crisis for the state of Israel. Aljazeera, BBC, The Guardian
Sub-Saharan Africa
Brought to you by Joshua Bernald Ross, Bennie Mukanya, and Tabitha Surtees
Delayed Presidential Elections in Senegal
Senegal's President Macky Sall has said that he will leave office when his term comes to an end on the 2nd of April, but there is no official date for the elections. President Macky Sall proposed the 2nd of June as a new date for the elections however politicians aren't happy about it as they want the president to leave his role as soon as possible. Africa News, BBC, France24
Nigeria’s Economic Woes
On a day of mass public protest against the state of the country’s economy, the Nigerian central bank decided on Tuesday to raise interest rates by 4% to 22.75% as part of an overall tightening of monetary policy designed to combat the country’s worsening economic crisis. Since the inauguration of President Bola Tinubu last May, major economic reforms, including cutting fuel subsidies and floating the naira (the Nigerian currency), have led to a soaring inflation rate of 29.90% - the highest since the 1990s – and a plummeting currency, causing living standards to drop and widespread unrest to break out in Africa’s most populous nation. The government hopes that the new measures, predicted to be in place for at least a year, will help ease inflationary pressure and stabilise the economy, however, critics have questioned the efficacy of rate hikes in Nigeria, highlighting the challenges posed by fundamental structural issues in the country’s economy, as well as the increasingly evident impact of significant foreign exchange shortages. France24, Financial Times, Business Insider
Situation in Ukraine
Brought to you by Team Manager Joseph Niblett, Sophia Lieuw-Kie-Song and Archie Mackesy
A Boon for Ukrainian Resolve?
Hungary has finally approved Sweden's NATO bid, ensuring it is set to become the 32nd member state. Hungarian opposition to Swedish membership in the organisation may have stemmed from the Nordic country's criticism of their democracy's integrity. Budapest has also held closer ties with Moscow than the rest of NATO, with a record of unwillingness to provide support to Ukraine. Nonetheless, Hungary's parliament voted almost unanimously to ratify Sweden's membership. BBC, Guardian, Independent
Macron’s Manoeuvres
The French President has said that Ukraine’s survival is pivotal to safety in Europe, warning that support must not and cannot wane. Speaking in Paris, he said European leaders had agreed to organise a coalition to provide Ukraine with medium and long-range missiles and bombs, emphasising his dedication to Ukraine’s cause by saying he was not opposed to sending Western troops to fight. BBC, Guardian, Reuters
Another A-50 AWACS Shot down over the Sea of Azov
A second Russian A-50 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft has been downed over the Sea of Azov. Though Russia is yet to state the cause, Russian ultra-nationalist accounts have suggested friendly fire from a misidentification during the use of an S-400 air defence system could be to blame. This marks the second A-50 loss of 2024, leaving numbers remaining between 4 or 6, greatly reducing Russia's long-range and low-altitude radar capability. Though the remaining units may easily fulfil this in Ukraine, the loss reduces Russia's global capability, especially given the ascension of neighbouring Finland to NATO. Newsweek, Understanding War, BBC
Battleships
Brought to you by Team Manager Eden Behl, Jacob Godley and Amelia Blamphin
Warships Coalesce
As part of Operation Steadfast Defender, the HMS Prince of Wales has formed a task force with several Danish, Spanish and Canadian warships. In support from the Fleet is the type 23 Frigate, HMS Portland and Royal Fleet Auxillary oilers RFA Tidesurge and RFA Tidespring. This task force is expected to exercise rigorously in the North Sea over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, the fleet flagship, HMS Queen Elizabeth makes her way to Scotland for repairs. USNI, Navy Lookout, MOD
WWII Bomb Discovered in Plymouth
A 500kg WWII-era German bomb found in a Plymouth garden has been detonated at sea. The bomb saw the evacuation of approximately 3,250 people from within a 309-metre cordon, allowing the Royal Navy's explosive ordnance disposal team to eliminate the threat. The operation was carried out by around 30 of the Armed Forces' top bomb disposal specialists and it has been described by Defence Secretary Grant Shapps as a 'complex ' operation, attesting to the 'level of skill and expertise' throughout UKAF. BBC, Guardian, Forces.net
Criticism Halts Plans for New Army Housing
Following public backlash, the Ministry of Defence has paused a new plan for army housing, which would determine the size of subsidised home allocation by family size rather than rank. This pause comes as the result of criticism from military families and officers, some of whom threatened to quit due to the plan. The expectation of serving officers is that progression in rank comes along with an increase in housing size, and so there is fear that changes in this could affect both the hierarchical structure of the army and its retention of serving personnel, particularly after numbers in the Armed Forces already dropped significantly last year. BBC, Telegraph, Sky
Policy Perspectives
Global Economy and Tech
Brought to you by Team Manager Sophia Lieuw-Kie-Song
Alleviating Ailments Caused By AI
The home secretary is set to meet with heads of Google, Meta, Apple, and YouTube to discuss the threat AI deepfakes pose to this year’s democratic elections. As voters in both the US and the UK take to the polls later this year, Cleverly has raised concerns about “malign actors” representing the interests of hostile states, such as Russia, influencing election results and threatening their integrity. Times, Guardian, Independent
Climate and Environment
Brought to you by Team Manager Sara Cetinja, Zoe Yang and Elliot Harris
EU Parliament Marches On
Following the farmers' protest in Brussels on Monday, the European Parliament introduced the Nature Restoration Law, amid strong opposition against strict green policies. The law is now awaiting formal approval from EU Member States, and its objectives aim to restore Europe's natural habitats. Irish Times, Reuters, Euronews
UK’s Exit From Energy Charter Treaty
On 22nd February, the UK government confirmed its withdrawal from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) after unsuccessful attempts to modernise the agreement and align it with energy and climate goals. The treaty was signed in 1994 to promote international investment in the energy sector, providing protections for investors in fossil fuels through an arbitration system. Proposals to reform the ECT have been the subject of months of discussions among European countries, leading to a stalemate. The decision supports the UK's transition to net zero and reinforces its energy security. The withdrawal will end treaty protections for new energy investments in a year. Several other European countries have also left or plan to withdraw from the treaty, citing its inconsistency with energy and climate goals. Parliament, Guardian, Gov.uk
Big Tech Water Consumption Skyrockets
Big Tech AI data centres are requiring more and more water for cooling as their technology advances, with Microsoft increasing their water consumption by 34% according to the most recently available data. Amidst a global scarcity of fresh water, data centres are dissipating 9 litres of water per kWh of energy used, and AI has a projected water footprint of 6.6 billion cubic metres by 2027, but these companies aim to replace water faster than they use it by supporting and funding wetland and irrigation projects. FT, Forbes, CityAM
Human Rights
Brought to you by Yi Nian Mercedes Cheung and Nathan Carter
Article 23 Violates Human Rights
86 civil society groups condemned the Hong Kong government's proposed Article 23 national security legislation, arguing it erodes human rights protections. They criticised the brief four-week public consultation period beginning January 30, 2024, and the law’s vague nature, which could undermine legal rights, continuing the trend of repression since China's National Security Law in 2020. Under Article 23 of the territory's Basic Law, a mini-constitution adopted following the 1997 handover from the British colonial administration to China, Hong Kong was compelled to enact legislation prohibiting conduct that "endangers national security." The groups urged global governments to denounce the law and impose sanctions like asset freezes and travel bans on officials responsible for violating human rights. Human Rights Watch, Guardian, Reuters
Legacy Act Breaches Human Rights
The Belfast High Court has ruled that the British government's Northern Ireland Troubles Legacy Act breaches articles 2 and 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Criticised for impeding access to justice, the Act prevents new Troubles-era cases and inquests, while also granting immunity to those accused of killings. Sky, Reuters, BBC
Opportunities
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Essay competition: First Sea Lord's Essay Competition 2024 - Council on Geostrategy
1,250 word essay
Deadline: 15 April 2024 - Learn More
Online webinar: Two years and counting: Taking stock of the Russia-Ukraine War - International Institute for Strategic Studies
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Date: 29 February 2024 - Learn More
Open conference: Global Trade 2024: What stakeholders need to know to enhance resiliency across the global trade landscape - Chatham House
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Date: 7 March 2024 - Learn More
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