Change or Continuity?
Issue #21- Thursday 31st October
Editor’s Note
Hello everyone,
On Wednesday, Rachel Reeves- Labour’s Chancellor of the Exchequer and the first Woman Chancellor in British history- stood at the dispatch box and delivered the first Labour government budget in 14 years. In this, the Chancellor announced a wide-sweeping overhaul to the previous government’s economic agenda, committing to £76 billion in increased public spending throughout the next parliament along with £100 billion in supply-side investment through a National Wealth Fund and £40 billion worth of tax rises, the largest tax-raising budget since 1993 and pushing the tax burden to the highest in recorded history. In this, the Labour government announced the reversal of some of its manifesto pledges, such as its increase in National Insurance- which although is for the employer side will still likely have effects on employees- and its commitment to not increase unfunded borrowing to cover current expenditure. Nonetheless, the budget also saw significant increases in public spending to help cover current and anticipated shortfalls in the NHS and schools. In total, the budget sought to “turn the page on the last 14 years” of Conservative governance and establish Labour’s plan to transform the British economy.
The budget has since received very mixed reviews. The IMF- in a rare intervention- applauded the budget for permitting a more sustainable approach to economic growth. However, many question the actual prospects of long-run growth. Whilst the Chancellor pledged significant increases to public supply-side investment, the question over the longevity of such economic growth plans still looms large. The Resolution Foundation has further criticised the budget for failing to have a markedly beneficial effort for living standards, with their estimations being that living standards across the country will be fairly similar to the preceding government, with household income growth estimated to be the second worst in Britain’s post-war history over the course of the next parliament. Furthermore, controversy was made by the fact that Rachel Reeves declared a £22 billion ‘black hole’ in the public finances, whereas the Office for Budget Responsibility found this number to be closer to £9.5 billion- a figure that is still an aberration to the norm but nothing as high as Reeves had stated from the dispatch box. Whilst the markets continue to react to the budget and how the Bank of England will accordingly react at their next meeting, the budget reflects the incredibly difficult and damning prospects of the UK economy over the next parliament.
- Alexander Belay, Dossier Editor
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Regional Roundup
The World at a Glance…
Asia-Pacific
Brought to you by Team Manager Benjamin Huthwaite, Deiniol Brown, and Mercedes Cheung
Backfire in Japan Snap Election
Japan's politics, usually predictable affairs, saw excitement in its recent snap election. Following a large corruption scandal involving senior members of the long-incumbent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and increasing consumer prices, Japan has undergone political turbulence. Japan's newest Prime Minister, Ishiba called a snap election, hoping to strengthen the LDP position. However, voters showed their outrage at the ballot box, with the LDP losing its majority and unable to form its previous two-party coalition government. Ishiba must now decide whether to run a minority government or include more parties in its coalition. BBC, Al Jazeera, Le Monde
EU-China Trade War Rolls On
Yesterday, following the EU’s conclusion of trade negotiations that saw up to 35% tariffs placed on Chinese EVs, China lodged a complaint with the WTO to challenge the decision and has threatened further action concerning trade with the EU in response. This is the latest drama in months of trade disagreements between the two sides as the EU struggles to find a balance between following the US’s aggressive tariff policy and establishing a closer economic relationship with China as sought after by some member-states such as Spain. New York Times, France24, SCMP
China's New Crew Arrives at Space Station
On 30th October, at 0427 Beijing time, China launched its new three-person crew to the Tiangong space station. The crew, China's youngest ever, will conduct spacewalks and install new devices, some domestically manufactured, to protect the station from space debris. China seeks to expand its space exploration through its Moon program and the landing of an explorer on Mars, intensifying the space race with the US. NBC, BBC, The Independent
Global Conflicts
Brought to you by Team Manager Archie Mackesy, Theo Falls, and Jess Dowse
Slow Russian Advances Continue as Ukraine Announces New Mobilisations
Russian advances continue in the East of Ukraine as Russian forces made significant advances around Selydove, on the road to Pokrovsk. This comes as questions on the support to Ukraine looms large with next week's US presidential election. The situation in the East has been defined by slow Russian advances in the last few weeks, and Ukraine has announced a drive to draft 160,000 more troops as it struggles for manpower. The Guardian, ISW, BBC
Calls For Peace Amidst Crisis in Myanmar
Myanmar’s military Junta has invited rebel groups to consider peace by political means, the first act of this nature since the 2021 coup. Whilst this might be a promising step forward, rebel militias have rejected the offer, citing illegitimacy as having undermined any bargaining power which might exist. Calls for peace are certainly timely. In the absence of a clear rule of law, the country is reportedly experiencing unprecedented human suffering and a vast proliferation of criminal networks. BBC, NBC, Al Jazeera
Russia Fires Missiles to Simulate ‘Massive’ Response to Nuclear Attack
On Tuesday, Russia test-fired missiles over distances of thousands of miles, widely seen as an attempt to show its nuclear force. This comes at a critical moment in the Russia-Ukraine war, after weeks of Russian signals to the West that Moscow will respond if the United States and its allies allow Kyiv to fire longer-range missiles deep into Russia. Last month, the Kremlin leader approved changes to the official nuclear doctrine, extending the list of scenarios under which Moscow would consider using such weapons. Reuters, New York Times, CBS
Middle East and North Africa
Brought to you by Team Manager Alexander Belay, William Radley, and Lucy Chambers
Israel's Counterstrike on Iran
Israel launched their highly anticipated counter-attack against the Islamic Republic of Iran on Friday evening following Iran's second large-scale attack against Israel. In this, Israel launched several missiles as well as using its fleet of F35s to target military bases across the country, hitting bases near Tehran, Shahroud, and Abadan. It remains unclear what exactly was struck, with reports indicating some of Iran’s air defence systems being the predominant target. Iran has downplayed the attack, stating that its air defence systems were largely successful in halting the attack. Sky, New York Times, Tehran Times
Israel Bars UNRWA
On Monday, the Israeli Knesset passed a bill barring the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) from operating within Israel and occupied East Jerusalem, as well as banning contact between UNRWA staff and Israeli authorities by January 2025. This law, which was passed by 92 votes to 10, solidifies Israel’s disdain for the organisation as Israeli authorities have accused UNRWA staff of, inter alia, participating in the October 7th attacks as well as their highly controversial education programme. Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, the agency has provided food packages to 1.9 million people, yet with the passing of the new legislation, it remains to be seen the ramifications this will have on further aid and assistance for the Palestinians. BBC, The Spectator, Al Jazeera
Taliban Ban Women From Vocal Prayer Practices
The Taliban, the group who have governed Afghanistan since the US withdrawal in 2022, have introduced new rules to further restrict the rights of women. In this, the Taliban have declared that women must withhold from reading the Quran aloud and that vocal prayers must be inaudible to males in their vicinity. This follows the previous implementation of strict clothing, speech, and school laws that have dominated the lives of women since the Taliban regained authority in Afghanistan. The Independent, The Telegraph, LBC
Europe
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Toby Walton and Bryn Jones, and James Gordon
Vote-Rigging Claims in Georgia
Georgia’s pro-western President has claimed that recent elections in the country were ‘totally falsified’ as protests grow in the capital, Tbilisi. Pro-EU protesters have rejected the claims that the 54% of votes achieved by the Georgian Dream party and that there have been widespread ‘electoral irregularities’. However, a partial recount by the electoral commission has thus far confirmed the ruling Georgian Dream party has indeed won the parliamentary elections. This recent development in Georgia hinders the country’s prospect for EU membership as the EU’s foreign ministry claims “violations of electoral integrity are incompatible with the standards expected from a candidate to the European Union”. BBC, The Guardian, Financial Times
Economic Woes Continue for Germany Despite Unexpected Growth
The latest economic figures show that the German economy grew by 0.2% in the third quarter. Despite avoiding recession, economic pessimism remains rife, with Volkswagen reporting a 21% drop in profits compared to the same time last year and announcing on Monday the planned closure of three factories in Germany alongside tens of thousands of job losses. The federal government has long been struggling to find a path to economic growth, with major disagreements arising between the Social Democrats, Greens, and free-market liberals who make up the coalition. CNN, Reuters, AP News
Trade war between EU and China escalates- European Perspective
On Wednesday, new EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles came into force. The European Commission said that the share of Chinese-built electric cars has jumped from 3.9% of the EV market in 2020 to 25% in September 2023. In response, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products said it expressed "great regret" on the part of the Chinese automotive industry. The Independent, NY Times, Euronews
North America
Brought to you by Team Manager Humphrey Schyler, Caine McCartney, and James Gordon
Trump Ramps Up Campaign at Final Week
In a pitch to young male voters, Trump appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast for a three-hour-long interview, released on the 26th, discussing topics such as Trump's first administration, tariffs, and energy policy. Later on Sunday, Trump hosted a rally at the New York's Madison Square Garden, gathering huge momentum while kicking off the final week of the campaign. While the Republicans claimed the jampacked arena as a sign of the victory to come, critics have compared it to the Nazi rallies that took place there back in 1939. CBS, Telegraph
Sub-Saharan Africa
Brought to you by Ava Grainger-Williams, Tabitha Surtees, and Toby Walton
East Africa on Track: Tanzania’s Railway Expansion
Tanzania Railways Corporation (TRC) has launched Africa's first electric passenger train, running between Dodoma and Dar Es Salaam. This follows Kenya's Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) which opened in 2017. Improving African transport links, with the help of Chinese funding, is fundamental to the development of these nations. Cargo trains to transport Africa's rich minerals and resources are also becoming increasingly important for landlocked countries. BBC, African Business, Railway Supply
Massacre Investigation Demands in Burkina Faso
A Human Rights Watch report released on October 29 calls for a thorough investigation into the August 24 massacre at Barsalogho, Burkina Faso, where at least 133 civilians were killed by the Islamist armed group JNIM, an Al-Qaeda-linked group. Civilians, including children, were forced to dig defensive trenches around a military base before attackers fired indiscriminately at those in the trench and nearby. Human Rights Watch emphasises that investigating this war crime is crucial for ensuring accountability and preventing further endangerment of civilians in conflict zones. Human Rights Watch, Al Jazeera, Bellingcat
Sudanese Paramilitary Group Accused of Mass Killings
UN officials have received reports of mass killings and "gross human rights abuses" committed by the Rapid Support Forces Group (RSF) in Sudan. Activist groups have said that at least 124 people have been killed by the RSF in attacks on villages over the past week. The latest spike in violence comes after a senior RSF commander defected to the country’s official military force. The conflict in Sudan broke out in April 2023, killing tens of thousands and displacing more than 11 million. BBC, Guardian, CNN
Latin America
Brought to you by Tom Taylor and William Radley
Bolivian Government Denies Allegations It Attempted to Kill Evo Morales
The Bolivian Government has rejected the notion that they attempted to murder former President Evo Morales. Morales uploaded a picture onto social media of bullet holes in the windscreen of his car, which he stated were fired by Bolivian military personnel on the orders of President Arce. The Government, in response, have accused Morales of faking the assassination attempt in order to rally and unify the support behind his bid for a second term as President. BBC, Reuters, CNN
Lost Ancient City Discovered by PhD Student in Mexico.
A PhD student has discovered a lost Mayan city- the size of Scotland's capital, Edinburgh- in the southeastern state of Campeche, Mexico. Using existing data and research methods, the student was able to identify what other experts had not detected. It is believed the ancient city was home to approximately 30,000 Mayans and was at its peak from 750 to 850 AD. This unprecedented finding is very significant to archaeologists in many fields, with many experts now collaborating in the hopes of finding other discoveries. BBC, Independent, Standard
Policy Perspectives
International Law
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Patrick Brice and Daniel Hillier, and Lucile Morio-Floch
Israel Bans UNRWA, Sparking Action from the United Nations
On Monday, the Israeli Parliament banned the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) from providing humanitarian assistance across the country, including occupied Palestine. This action restricts UNRWA’s role in providing crucial services such as education, healthcare, and food assistance, to Palestinian refugees, sparking criticism surrounding Israeli's commitment to their obligations under both the Geneva Conventions and the UN Charter. This development could see the International Court of Justice forced to act, with countries such as Norway calling on the court for a binding advisory opinion on Israel's obligations to facilitate humanitarian aid to Palestinian citizens. Middle East Eye, Al Jazeera, BBC
Council of the EU Formally Adopt Platform Workers Directive
This month, the Council of the EU formally adopted the Platform Workers Directive on its first reading. The legislation aims to introduce new regulations surrounding individuals employed by digital platforms, such as Uber. The Directive includes limits on the extent to which businesses can remotely monitor employees for the protection of health. It also introduces rebuttable presumptions regarding employment relationships in these industries. These measures are intended to prevent corporations from circumventing tax and duty of care obligations by arguing the individuals working for them are self-employed. Simmons and Simmons, Council of the EU, Pinsent Masons
Soaring Energy Demands of AI Call for a Shift to Nuclear Power
AI-driven data centres currently consume around 3% of global energy, a figure set to climb as AI proliferates across industries. Tech companies such as Google and Microsoft are exploring nuclear power, particularly through small modular reactors, as a low-carbon solution to cope with the surge in energy requirements. The transition involves new start-ups and nuclear plants, navigating strict regulatory frameworks, and securing substantial funding, including from bodies such as the European Commission. Robust IP protection, guidance to prevent international law violations, and innovative funding structures will be required to support the huge development. Springer Nature, Forbes, Legal Business Minds
Global Economy and Tech
Brought to you by Oscar Gray and Adit Banta
Labour's First Budget in 14 Years
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a £40 billion tax increase to address a £22 billion deficit inherited by her Labour Party as they present their first Budget in 14 years. In the days leading up to Wednesday's announcement, executives have ramped up the sale of shares in UK-listed companies to avoid the increase in capital gains tax, which rose from 20% to 24% for higher-rate taxpayers. However, investors are left questioning whether the combined impact of higher taxes and rising wages might hinder the government’s goal to make Britain the fastest-growing economy in the G7. As the public tightens their belts heading into winter, many wonder if the Prime Minister’s "difficult decisions" will ultimately pay off for voters. Financial Times, The Economist, Reuters
Gold Soars As Geopolitical Tensions Rise, US Presidential Uncertainty
This week, gold prices soared to record highs of more than US $2700 per ounce in response to a myriad of developing crises across the world. Historically, gold has been seen as a safe-haven investment, a hedge against volatile international financial markets and increased geopolitical turmoil. With significant instability and unpredictability across the Middle East, increased military activity in the Taiwan Strait, and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election, investors have significantly increased their holdings in gold, with analysts predicting further gains to over US$3000 by the beginning of 2025. The Times, Goldman Sachs, Reuters
Climate and Environment
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Megan Spratt and Bryn Jones
Mount Fuji Remains Snowless
Mount Fuji remains snow-free, marking the latest snow formation on the mountain in 130 years. Japan experienced its joint hottest summer on record, underscoring the effects of climate change. This is particularly significant in light of the United Nations’ warning that global climate action plans are "falling miles short," just weeks before COP29 is set to commence. The Guardian, Sky, BBC(Still) A Long Way to Go to Reach Climate Targets
The World Meteorological Organisation has released figures this week showing that the concentration of environmentally harmful pollutants in the atmosphere hit record levels in 2023. The 2024 Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report also confirms that the gases contributing to global warming are accumulating faster than ever before, dramatically increasing the stakes for the coming COP29 negotiations. UNFCCC, BBC, The Guardian
Global Health
Brought to you by Team Manager Thecla Richardson and Mairéad Graham
Gazan Polio Vaccination Campaign Paused
The final phase of an emergency polio vaccination campaign in Gaza has been postponed due to escalating violence, intense Israeli bombardments, mass displacement, and the substantial reduction of approved areas for humanitarian pauses. Whilst 442,000 children have received the second dose, this delay has prevented almost 120,000 children from receiving the second dose, with medical experts warning that delays in administering doses seriously jeopardise efforts to reduce the transmission of the disease. The United Nations is advocating for a further humanitarian pause to continue the vaccination campaign, with the World Health Organization's representative in Gaza hoping to restart the campaign within the next week. WHO, ABC, Telegraph
Tuberculosis Returns as Top Infectious Disease Killer
Tuberculosis (TB) has surpassed COVID-19 as the lead infectious disease killer in a recent report published by the WHO. There was a significant increase in cases from 7.5 million in 2022 to 8.2 million in 2023, the highest number recorded since monitoring started in 1995. Efforts to combat the outbreak have faced significant challenges such as drastic underfunding, with many people unable to access new treatment developments due to cost. Failure to meet funding targets has significantly impacted low- and middle-income countries, where 98% of TB cases arise. WHO, Reuters, BBC
Battleships
Brought to you by Team Manager Jacob Godley
Autonomous Warfare Capabilities Demonstrated Off Jervis Bay
The Royal Navy has been testing its ability to use drone technology alongside its AUKUS allies in exercise Autonomous Warrior, strengthening the alliance through enhancing the interoperability of its uncrewed technology. The British tested a system known as Strike Net, allowing the operation of technology owned by the US and Australia remotely, an opportunity reciprocated to both nations. The 'Maritime Big Play' initiative aims to enhance the capabilities of allied nations, especially pertaining to the ability to utilise remote warfare. UKDJ, Royal Navy, US Department of Defense