Eagle Has Landed
ISSUE #001 – Thursday 19th of October
Editor’s Note
US President Biden, referred to as “Celtic” by the Secret Service, arrived yesterday morning in Israel amidst the ongoing conflict.
Throughout the 2020 election, foreign policy was considered the Biden campaign’s trump card, affording him the opportunity to flex his experience in government. Without any doubt, and with another presidential election on the horizon, being visible and taking leadership in working towards de-escalating this conflict, further reducing loss of life, remains a priority for the administration.
However, the US President arrived as rockets were still being launched by Hamas and as contested news of a hospital being bombed in Gaza erupted, exposing this decision to be an overt gamble. Many are suggesting this gamble has failed, with all of Biden’s other scheduled regional meetings being cancelled. LINK
Biden’s record on foreign policy is fiercely debated. Our team are interested in the instincts of the current US President, especially considering the shortcomings deriving from the ‘red line’ issue in Syria in 2012 and the more recent withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. All of this is to be considered in the backdrop of the broader US shift in foreign policy to the Indo-Pacific. Another key issue will be the implications on Iran policy and the prospect of a second JCPOA, which was previously reported to have stagnated over IRGC sanctions.
Irrefutably, diplomatic solutions are the way forward. DDS was founded to connect our members with opportunities, regardless of their background. Help us inspire the next generation of diplomats and public servants by volunteering for our mentoring scheme HERE.
- Jordan Colby Kiss
Upcoming Events
FREE AND OPEN TO ALL: Q&A With Sir David Lidington KCB CBE
Chair of RUSI & Former Deputy Prime Minister
Tuesday 24th October – 16:00 – The Nest, South College
Regional Roundup
The World at a Glance…
Europe
Brought to you by Toby Walton, Oscar Mackay, Tommaso Quaglia, Phoebe Bradford, Bryn Jones, Jerry Li, Henry Carless and Anton Ball
Europe Meets Putin?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin met at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, on Tuesday to try and mend bilateral ties between the two countries. It is the first meeting of a European Union (EU) leader with Vladimir Putin since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in March, and in meeting him Orbán walks a fine line between pursuing his own foreign policy and maintaining EU unity. LINK, FT, WP
Upset in Polish Elections
PiS, Poland's ruling party, collects the largest vote share but loses its majority in government Civil Coalition, Poland's largest opposition party, led by former prime minister, Donald Tusk, hopes to form a coalition government hailing the result as 'the end of the bad times' and ‘a victory of democracy’. LINK, Times, Guardian
France to Ban Pro-Palestine Demonstrations
A directive sent to local prefects by France's Interior Minister said pro-Palestinian demonstrations should be banned and those who defy them should be arrested. The decision comes as a precaution to protect French Jews who have already witnessed a rise in antisemitic hate crime in the country, whilst pro-Palestinian organisations have criticised it as a threat to freedom of expression. LINK, WP
Tackling Anti-semitism in the EU
In the wake of renewed conflict between Israel and Palestine, a rise in incidents involving anti-semitism has been especially prevalent in certain European states including France and Germany. The aforementioned states have taken swift action to combat this, such as amending legal definitions (France) and accepting historical responsibility to protect the Jewish community (Germany). LINK, POLITICO
Palestine's Largest Donor of Aid Resumes Flow
The EU has retreated on its decision to freeze Palestinian funds, worth €691m, after criticism from members such as Ireland, Spain and Luxembourg. As the largest donor to Palestine, how the EU solves these indecisions will have impactful consequences on the well-being of many Palestinians. LINK, European Commission, FT
Aftermath of Nagorno-Karabakh
After Azerbaijan’s latest invasion in September, the country has regained control of the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Almost the entire population, of 120,000 ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have fled the region into neighbouring Armenia. This conflict has highlighted the wider geopolitical tensions in the region as Russia’s interests have moved away from the Caucasus towards Ukraine. With the military support of the regional power of Turkey, Azerbaijan has taken full advantage of this instability. LINK, POLITICO, NYT
Slovakia Set for Ukraine Neutrality With New Populist Coalition
In the recent Slovak elections, longtime former PM Robert Fico's party emerged with the most seats, forming a governing coalition with his former deputy and successor Peter Pellegrini (third place), and an ultranationalist party which had served in Fico's cabinets twice before. This signals a wind change in Slovakia's foreign policy, which suspended military aid to Ukraine when the election results were announced; Fico, who had promised a sovereign Slovak policy, has been compared to Hungary's Orban in his populist pragmatism. LINK, POLITICO, GUARDIAN
EU-Western Balkans Summit in Tirana
Following the continued violence in Ukraine, a summit was held in Tirana on Monday to discuss a new European priority: integrating the Western Balkan countries into the EU and strengthening their ties with Western Europe. The six Balkan countries involved (known as the WB6) are at very different stages of their membership negotiations, and certain political and economic reforms are necessary in order to meet EU standards. Official Summary, AP, German Gov
Middle-East and North Africa
Brought to you by Riyad Babayev Mamedova, Guy Collins, Joe Collinge, Menna Zayed, Joe Murphy, Danielle Lisa Hotz
Israel and Palestine Conflict: Where Did This All Begin?
From 1917 to 1947 Palestine was among former Ottoman territories placed under UK governance by the League of Nations in 1922. The advancement of unique social, economic and political structures saw these regions emerge as independent states, except for Palestine. Large-scale Jewish immigration took place, predominantly from Eastern Europe, as Jewish persecution grew throughout the Nazi reign. The 1947 to 1977 period of the installation of the Palestinian-Israeli partition led to the 1948 'Arab-Israeli War'; the 1967 'Six-Day War' and the 1973 'Yom Kippur War'. UN, JCPA, Sky News Glossary
Chaos in Gaza
Israel has ordered 1.1 million civilians in the Northern side of the Gaza Strip to evacuate immediately amid the possibility of a terrestrial invasion of the city. Hamas has told civilians to not evacuate, but rather, fight this psychological war against Israel. This, potentially, could lead to another migrant crisis in Europe, as Israel might not stop with just Northern Gaza, but also engulf the rest of the strip and West Bank, potentially causing a situation like the 2012-14 Syrian Migrant Crisis. LINK, Aljazeera, Sky
UK Announces Military Aid to Israel
The RAF will conduct surveillance patrols, with a company of RM on standby and 2 RFA ships. The aid is for deterrence and assurance and comes alongside £10 million in humanitarian aid to the Occupied Palestinian territories. GOV, BBC
Iran's Nuclear Benefit From Heightened Israeli-Palestine Conflict
Substantial progress made towards a normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel represents the former's national security concerns, seeking to undermine the nuclear shadow Iran casts upon the Middle East. - In the face of the most recent attacks from Israel and Hamas, however, sectarian unity across the Islamic world prevails, hindering the feasibility of a Saudi-Israeli normalisation and subsequently delaying Saudi hopes of becoming a nuclear power, consolidating Iranian nuclear dominance in the region as a result. POLITICO, FT, GUARDIAN
Prospects of Saudi-Israel normalisation
The recent outbreak of hostilities in Gaza has prompted Saudi Arabia to halt the US-backed normalisation process underway between itself and Israel in response to a growing wave of Arab solidarity with the Palestinian cause. This setback will come as a blow to the Biden administration, which was hoping for a major foreign policy achievement before the next US election. NYT, Arab Center
Americas
Brought to you by Oscar Mackay, Julia Berti Olea, Caine McCartney, Henry Carless and Brendan Almqvist
"We have your back"
The U.S. Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, announced from Tel Aviv on Friday that the US is prepared to deploy more military aid to Israel as the country readies for a likely ground offensive into Gaza. Two aircraft carriers and scores of military aircraft are already on their way to the Middle East, whilst special operation forces are assisting Israel's military planning. AP, REUTERS, POLITICO
Progress with China?
President Xi Jinping met with a U.S. Senate delegation led by Chuck Schumer, emphasising the significance of China-U.S. relations and advocating a political strategy of cooperation over confrontation. In Mr. Xi's words, "We have 1,000 reasons to make China-U.S. relations work well and not a single reason to make China-U.S. relations bad". However, Schumer expressed disappointment at China’s neutral stance on the Hamas attack on Israel and urged China to condemn the attacks and use its influence over Iran to prevent conflict escalation. China assured that the message would be conveyed, but maintained its neutral position in the conflict. NYT, NPR
Canada Appoints New Speaker
Greg Fergus makes history by becoming Canada’s first black speaker of The House of Commons after the resignation of his predecessor Anthony Rota. Rota’s resignation came after honouring Yaroslav Hunka, a Ukrainian-Polish man who fought with a Nazi unit during the Second World War, a scene described as “Deeply embarrassing” by Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau, who is entangled in a feud with India and facing pressure to act on conflict with Ukraine and Israel, will hope the appointment of Fergus will bring some much-needed stability. REUTERS, NATIONAL POST
Argentinian Elections
Ahead of next week’s Argentinian presidential elections, right-wing economist and politician Javier Milei has emerged as the frontrunner for the presidency. Milei, a self-proclaimed “anarchy-capitalist”, has proposed a wide-ranging set of policies, varying from the replacement of the severely devalued Peso with the US dollar, the closing of the central bank, and a reassessment of the country’s main trading partners. FT, REUTERS, GUARDIAN
Chaos in the House of Representatives
After Kevin McCarthy was removed as speaker on the 3rd of October, two weeks of Republican internal politics has been unfruitful in replacing him. The more hardline Republicans backed Jim Jordan while Republicans more aligned with the Old Guard backed Steve Scalise, neither could secure the amount of votes needed to become speaker so some are considering increasing the speaker pro tempore's power as a temporary solution. CBS, WASHINGTON POST
Asia
Brought to you by Benjamin Huthwaite, Sebastian Wade, Saundarya Sing, Josh Gosling, Bennie Mukanya, Joseph Niblett, Oscar Mackay and Kashiff Adepegba
North Korea Accused of Arming Russia
Satellite images released on Friday accompanied American claims that North Korea is providing Russia with vast amounts of munitions for the war in Ukraine in return for sophisticated Russian weaponry and missiles. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby suggested up to 1000 containers of equipment had been sent by rail over the past weeks and that the US and its allies will continue to sanction individuals and entities facilitating such arms deals. VOA, REUTERS, BBC
Belt and Road Summit 23
China’s infamous ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ reaps handsome rewards as the newest superpower’s policy extends its influence from Italy to Kenya to Australia. However, corruption, poor project management and overpromising has imperilled the BRI, raising questions about the effectiveness of BRI in 2023. BBC, MERICS
Taiwan Unveils New Submarine to Fend Off China
Taiwan has recently unveiled the ‘Haikun’ submarine in order to enhance its naval defensive capabilities against Chinese aggression. - These submarines are constructed with a focus on asymmetric engagement - prioritising stealth and surprise due to a significant numerical disadvantage against the People’s Liberation Army Navy. The Haikun is hoped to further reinforce Taiwanese defensive capabilities against a Chinese military that currently lacks the ability to land a minimum of 1.2 million soldiers required for a possible amphibious assault against the island. BBC, JAPAN TIMES, ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Kiwis Go Right
Despite Labour's strong win in 2020, New Zealanders are tiring of the party, as it loses half of its supporters in Saturday's general election. Centre-right Christopher Luxon wins the most votes nearing 40%. Campaigning on fighting 'wokeism' and promises of tax cuts, the National Party still need a coalition with fellow right-wing leaning parties to win the majority. Clearly, New Zealand's proportional representation system is damaging votes for both the biggest parties. ECONOMIST, FT
Australians Say No to Indigenous Voice Referendum
Voters in Australia last week firmly rejected a constitutional amendment to create a special First Peoples 'Voice to Parliament'. This will likely have wider repercussions not only for Albanese's government but also the movement to replace Australia's constitutional monarchy with a republic. TIMES, SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Japan Calls on Iran to Intervene
Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa asked her Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir Abdollahian to "play a role" in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. -Japan will provide $10 million (about ¥1.5 billion) to aid civilians in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. -Japan places great importance on stability in the Middle East due to its heavy reliance on crude oil imports from the region. JAPAN TIMES
Sub-Saharan Africa
Brought to you by Bertie Shepherd-Cross, Jerry Li, Anton Ball, Bennie Mukanya, Sebastian Wade and Kashiff Adepegba
Niger Coup
The aftermath of the Nigerien July 26th Coup has had severe economic, social and political implications for Nigeriens and the Junta. With no sign of democratic transition in the newest member of the Coup Belt, what is the situation on the ground now? RESCUE, CARNEGIE
DR Congo: Eight UN Peacekeepers Arrested for Sexual Exploitation, One Officer Suspended
All of the peacekeepers belong to the South African contingent of the UN force. -After a quarter-century of UN force presence in the east of Congo, the government is calling for their “accelerated” departure due to their inability to bring peace to a region tormented by malicious armed groups. FRANCE24
Peacekeepers Stay in Somalia as Withdrawal Delayed
3000 African Union peacekeepers have delayed their departure from Somalia by three months, after the government admitted fears that its security forces aren't yet ready to hold their recent gains against Al Shabaab. Yet contributing states say the force, totalling almost 18000, will have to leave eventually, and any delays will pose questions of how the mission will continue to be funded. ECONOMIST
Soaring Debts and Unfinished Public Works
Kenya seeks a $1bn loan from China to help finish stalled infrastructure projects despite concerns among critics and Chinese reservations. President Ruto wants to buy back $500mn of Eurobond to alleviate the upcoming 2024 repayment of $2bn. Questions are raised about the systemic injustice of the disproportionate cost of African loans. REUTERS
Sudan War Escalates Into Local Ethnic Violence
Militia groups 'loosely affiliated' with the Rapid Support Forces(one side of the ongoing civil war) have carried out ethnic cleansing in the Darfur region, says Andrew Mitchell, the Minister for Africa; RSF had previously been associated with genocide charges under dictator al-Bashir. Incumbent military president al-Burhan is willing to work with ICC but has a limited grasp in the region; the UN is concerned about the ongoing displacement and humanitarian crisis, as well as the potential of the conflict spilling over. BBC, UNHCR
Situation in Ukraine
Brought to you by Joseph Niblett, Brendan Almqvist, Sophia Lieuw-Kie-Song, Phoebe Bradford
Conflict Overview
Russian and Ukrainian forces are currently engaged in fierce fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina line, with notably intense engagements around the contested cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. The violence is particularly intense around Avdiivka with Russia committing three battalions to seize the city, -however, reports indicate Russia is struggling to break through, with 102 tanks and 2,840 soldiers lost in efforts to seize the strategically valuable city in the Donbas. LINK, GUARDIAN
Uncertainty over America's commitment to Ukraine
With Kevin McCarthy's oust from the speakership, friction over sending aid to Ukraine is contributing to the current internal war in the Republican Party as they try to elect a new speaker - Some potential speakers such as Jim Jordan in particular have a record of opposing aid to Ukraine - However, some negotiations behind closed doors indicate he may continue a level of Ukraine aid which would anger his house freedom caucus allies. REUTERS, THE HILL
US Weaponry is Gold Dust
US defences are spread thin as the Israeli-Hamas war continues and Israel requires the same weaponry as Ukraine. -With both nations relying heavily on US weapons, the aid has been a wake-up call to Washington in how the US distributes its resources to places of conflict. FT, WASHINGTON POST
Russia on Trade Maneouvures
Russia’s renewed interest in pursuing fruitful relations with China and the Middle East, through the latest BRI forum has coincided with growing uncertainty around US funding to Ukraine, which could alter the trajectory of the ongoing war. GUARDIAN
Policy Perspectives
Global Economy and Tech
Brought to you by Abhiraj Banerjee, Harvey Ball, Oscar Gray, Sophia Lieuw-Kie-Song
Done Raising Rates?
The future of interest rates across major economies may be at a turning point, as investors predict the Fed is reaching the end of its course of rate hikes and pressure within the ECB against rate increases grows. - However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that “The cost of easing too early is probably higher than the cost of tightening a little more” and urged central banks to stay the course of tightening monetary policy. Easing monetary policy would bring down borrowing costs and act as a signal for companies globally to increase investment. NY TIMES, FT
“A floatation is like your own funeral. You usually do it only once.” Deciphering the IPO Market
The Economist's guide on how a company goes about floating on the stock market. -U.K. chip designer, Arm, had the largest IPO on the Nasdaq stock exchange in September 2023 for around two years. -An example of a less fortunate IPO listing. Birkenstock had a troublesome float on the New York Stock Exchange as stocks ended over 12% below its IPO price on 11th October. ECONOMIST, FT
EU Upset with Elon
The EU has launched an investigation into X into their misinformation regarding the Israel-Hamas war. -If Elon Musk, owner of X, does not comply, the platform could be the first to face punishment under the new Digital Services Act. FT, EU COMMISSION
Hardware of AI
Chatbots to develop audio and visual in the form of AR glasses and VR headsets as tech companies like Meta are keen to gain autonomy from the iPhone - Regulatory challenges are likely since it will be a more immersive experience than social media - The former design chief of Apple who designed the iPhone is working with openAI on new hardware. ECONOMIST, BUSINESS INSIDER
Climate and Environment
Brought to you by Joshua Gosling, Toby Walton, Phoebe Bradford, Sara Cetinja, Megan Sprat and Daneil Rodriguez
Climate policy: a political force worth facing?
The increasing prominence and politicisation of climate change policy on the international agenda has, seemingly, perpetuated a shift in affiliation across the political spectrum. Labour’s shock defeat in the July 2023 by-election in Uxbridge and Sunak’s subsequent reversal of the status quo in the pursuit of a “pragmatic, proportionate and realistic approach” outline the scepticism of technocratic climate policies – but will this result in national electoral success and, more importantly, recommit the UK to net zero by 2050? GUARDIAN, TIMES, TELEGRAPH
COP28 Conflict
The long-contested concept of climate responsibility reflecting a country’s level of development may come to a head at the upcoming COP28. It is unclear whether this will foster agreement, or exacerbate divisions. REUTERS
Scotland’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm Now Running
Seagreen, Scotland's largest offshore wind farm, has gained full operational status and is expected to provide enough renewable energy to power almost 1,6 million Scottish households per year. According to Paul Cooley, offshore wind director at SSE Renewables, whether the UK meets its 2030 climate target will be dependent on how quickly and effectively the Scottish and UK governments approve and finance projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. LINK, BBC
US Investment Sparks Debate
Biden invests $7bn into clean hydrogen hubs that span 16 states. Contestation by climate activists warns that the hydrogen hubs may not be as 'clean' as anticipated. FT, BBC
Climate Solution, Human Threat?
The EV industry in China has experienced a recent boom, driving down prices and making Europe an appealing marketplace due to various China-US relations issues. The potential for a mass rollout also carries the risk of technological weaponization through hacking, silent data collection and damage to related digital infrastructure. FT, RUSI
Human Rights
Brought to you by Toby Walton, Joshua Gosling, Sebastian Wade, Joe Murphy, Saima Saleem and Jerry Li
UN Human Rights Council establishes probe into alleged violations of human rights and international law in Sudan after latest war: -Khartoum's ambassador criticises the resolution's disregard for state sovereignty and 'double standards'. INDEPENDENT
Narges Mohammadi – A fight against Iranian oppression The recent Nobel Peace Prize recipient, Narges Mohammadi, represents the strength of opposition against the oppression of women under the theocratic regime in Iran. Despite being in the custody of the morality police, Mohammadi has been instrumental in the campaign for women’s rights, most notably through activism against the death penalty which comes after a prolonged period of protest against Tehran’s headscarf policy. FT
Russia fails to regain seat on UN Human Rights Council:
Russia failed to win back the seat on the United Nations Human Rights Council that it lost after its invasion of Ukraine, with the Eastern European seats instead going to Bulgaria and Albania. While its share of votes in the UN General Assembly was much smaller than those countries it lost to, that it was still supported by 83 out of the UN's 193 members suggests that world opinion is more forgiving than Ukraine and the West would like. GUARDIAN
The ongoing persecution of Uyghur Muslims in China:
Rahile Dawut, a leading Uyghur academic who specialises in the cultural practices and religious traditions of her people, is now confirmed to have been sentenced to life imprisonment by the Chinese government on the grounds of endangering state security. Her arrest is the latest development in the ongoing campaign of cultural cleansing in the Xinjiang region, marked by the arbitrary mass detention of over one million Uyghurs. ALJAZEERA
The UK is facing pressure from the Council of Europe to amend a controversial law granting immunity in Northern Ireland’s 'Troubles' cases. - Ireland is considering legal action against the UK for human rights violations, which could strain UK-Irish relations. - The law has faced objections and legal challenges, raising concerns about historical peace process decisions. FT, BBC
Ethiopia Embroiled in War Crime Allegations:
UN report -In a dire indictment of the conduct of the Ethiopian and Eritrean armed forces, the UN Commission on Human Rights have released a report on human rights violations in the regional conflicts that have been embroiling Ethiopia in the last few years. -Ethiopia's strongman PM Abiy Ahmed, who had recently met with Chinese President Xi, will no doubt be alarmed at the concerns the report raises about 'mass killings, widespread and systematic rape and sexual violence, including sexualized slavery against women and girls, deliberate starvation, forced displacement, and large-scale arbitrary detentions which amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity'. TAMIL GUARDIAN, OHCHR
Opportunities
Here is a list of opportunities and Jobs
The Trench Gascoigne Essay Prize:
The Trench Gascoigne Essay Prize, RUSI’s annual competition for original writing on contemporary issues related to national and international defence and security, is open to entries for 2023.
The winner in each category will receive an award of £1,000.
The deadline for submissions is Tuesday, 31 October 2023. Please see here for more details on how to participate – and good luck!
UN Young Professionals Programme:
The UN Young Professionals Programme (YPP) is a recruitment initiative for talented, highly qualified professionals to start a career as an international civil servant with the UN Secretariat. LINK
Traineeships in the European Parliament:
The Schuman traineeships are paid and can be undertaken at one of the European Parliament’s official places of work – Brussels, Luxembourg and Strasbourg – or in its Liaison Offices in the Member States.
Cryptograph
Still a work in progress…