A Year With No End
Issue #018- Thursday 10th October
Director’s Note
Dear readers,
Welcome back to a new term of the Durham Dossier - where a team of over 70 student analysts from across 12 desks curate condensed, punchy summaries of current affairs every week.
Having founded the Diplomatic Society with Jordan last year, I'm privileged to be leading DDS into the year ahead. We've got an incredibly exciting itinerary planned, including speaker events with the biggest voices in public service, from former Director of the CIA, Gen. David Petraeus to foreign policy expert, Dr Fiona Hill CMG.
We'll also be re-launching our award-winning Ambassadors Programme - designed to bring members to the heart of public service in practice. Across two Ambassadors Programmes - ran in December and March last term - DDS has taken 75 members to London, visiting seven embassies, four government departments, and multiple think-tanks. Last year, the Ambassadors Programme picked up prizes from the Durham University Students Union, and has been commended by supporters from Government Ministers to High Commissioners.
To access our speaker events, Ambassadors Programme, and brand-new Alumni Mentoring Scheme, students can secure their membership using the link below. We're proud to remain the only society in Durham offering free membership to Durham Grant recipients, as we strive to equip students from underrepresented backgrounds with opportunities, supporting them towards top public service careers.
Thank you for your unwavering support of our Society over the past year - we're incredibly excited for what's to come. For now, please enjoy our new edition of the Durham Dossier, and we look forward to welcoming you to an event very soon!
- Alex McDermott, Co-Founder and Director
Editor’s Note
Hello Everyone,
In September 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stood on the podium at the United Nations General Assembly and declared a new epoch for the Middle East, one founded on the security, legitimacy, and integrity of the Israeli state, the normalisation of relations between the Arab World and the Israelis, and a shared common enemy in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Just over a year has passed and once again Prime Minister Netanyahu stood at the same podium at the General Assembly, this time renouncing many of the predictions he had once lauded. The State of Palestine sat at the 79th Meeting of the General Assembly, marking a ‘historic moment’- though not as a full member of the UN- and Netanyahu was dismissed by many delegations for the brutal conduct of Israel’s wars in the region.
The attacks on Israel on October 7th by Hamas marked the largest killing of Jews since the Holocaust, yet the Israeli response has marked the deadliest year for Palestinians since the 1948 Nakba; to date, over 40,000 Palestinians and over 1700 Israelis have been killed. October 7th has been interpreted through many different lenses. To some, it was the death knell to years of progress towards a more stable and predictable Middle East through acts of terrorism and barbarism committed by Hamas, yet to others, it demonstrated the years of accumulated antagonisms between Israeli and Palestinians created by a hostile Israeli state hellbent on the rejection of Palestinian statehood and undermining the rights of Palestinians. Nonetheless, the Middle East is entering anything but a new epoch: Israel’s invasion of Southern Lebanon is synonymous with its invasions in 1982 and 2006, its targeting of the leadership of adversarial organisations has long been viewed as a legitimate practice by Israeli officials, and current talks of striking Iran’s nuclear facilities are familiar to the previous implementation of the Begin Doctrine- permitting nuclear strikes on adversarial powers to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, which Israel pursued against Iraq and Syria in 1981 and 2007 respectively.
The past year has also seen the tearing of previous conventions that enabled a level of predictability throughout the region. The first direct strikes by Iran on Israel since the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979 in April 2024 has now opened the possibility of a peripeteia towards chaos, whether that be Iran targetting Israeli officials or Israel’s targeting of Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The future is bleak to say the very least. The region is bracing for Israel’s response to Iran’s latest attacks on its military airbases and the likely reverberations this will have. The ICJ is still reviewing South Africa’s Genocide Case against Israel, and the ICC have filed applications for the arrest warrants of both Israeli and Hamas leaders. Israel continues to hold its war aims of defeating Iran’s Axis of Resistance, an outcome with a minuscule chance of success, and the negotiated release of the remaining hostages seems far-fetched. The pathway to peace in the region, whether that be Arab-Israeli normalisation or a resolution to the Palestinian question, is at the furthest it has been for decades, and Iran continues to gain significant advantages as the vanguard of Palestine’s defence. The regional conflict unfolding at present will continue to be one predicated on brutality and destruction, and if the last year has any indication of what is to unfold next, no end is in sight for peace and stability in the region.
Welcome to this year’s first publication of the Durham Dossier! To all our new readers, welcome to the preeminent global politics publication in Durham! We offer insightful roundups of the most fascinating and underreported stories of the week. To all our returning readers, thank you so much for your continued support! We look forward to continuing to publish at the same high standard as last year and we hope to continue to have your support throughout the year.
- Alexander Belay, Dossier Editor
Upcoming Events and Opportunities
Here is a list of upcoming events and opportunities…
Regional Roundup
The World at a Glance…
Asia-Pacific
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Benjamin Huthwaite and Jacob Godley, Deiniol Brown, Toby Walton, and Bryn Jones.
EU-China Trade War Brewing?
On Tuesday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the imposition of import duties of up to 39% on European brandy, in response to the EU’s recent decision to impose trade tariffs on Chinese EVs imported into Europe. This decision follows months of trade negotiations between the EU and China, as both sides sought to steer a course between economic nationalism and lucrative export markets. China’s targeting of Europe’s luxury goods sector represents a major blow, undermining one of the key factors that has led to Europe resisting a more hawkish, US-style approach to trade with China. SCMP, Euronews, Politico
North Korea’s Stark Warning on Nuclear Weapons
The North Korean leader has warned, once again, that he could use nuclear weapons in potential conflicts with South Korea and the US. In a speech delivered to the Kim Jong Un University of National Defense on Tuesday, state media reported that Kim Jong-Un said "the use of nuclear weapons is not ruled out" if North Korea's "enemies" attempted to use armed forces against them. The Independent, AP News, CNN
Indian Elections Provide Mixed Results for Modi
Exit polls for the legislative elections in the Northwest state of Haryana have given victory to Modi’s BJP. The first state election since the national election in June, this result has defied the huge wave of anti-incumbency that the BJP has been fighting. Meanwhile, in Indian-administered Kashmir the first assembly elections in over a decade have been held marking a restoration of ‘statehood’, the BJP currently trails in the exit polls as the Congress-NC alliance heads for victory. BBC, NDTV, Foreign Policy
Double Ten Day Brings Celebrations To Taiwan, but China To Its Doorstep?
Taiwan's National Day on the 10th October is likely to provoke a Chinese response, say senior Taiwanese security officials. With increased tensions since President Lai Ching-te's January election, experts believe Double Ten Day could heighten Chinese military exercises and airspace incursions around the island. The day commemorates the Wuchang Uprising, the collapse of the Qing dynasty, and the establishment of the Republic of China, later relocated to Taiwan. William Lai has recently reaffirmed his commitment to protecting Taiwan's independence. Taipei Times, The Economist, CNN
Exercise Sama Sama commences in the South China Sea
A joint exercise has been underway in the South China Sea to reinforce a 'collective commitment to strengthen regional and international cooperation in support of a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific'. Beginning in Late September and expanding its reach to include European navies partaking in exercise 'Sama Sama', translating to 'together'. Continuing from last year, the exercise has evolved to become more complex and innovative in order to strengthen the allied participant’s strength in the disputed region. Reuters, Newsweek, Naval Technology
Global Conflicts
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Archie Mackesy and Josh Bernald Ross
Russians Capture Vuhledar, Continued Ukrainian Strategic Drone Strikes
Following the fall of Vuhledar last week, the Russian Army has continued its push westwards into Donestk. The fall of the strategic city is speculated to be likely to force further Ukrainian withdrawal westwards to terrain more effective for defensive operations. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones have struck an oil terminal in Feodosia, Crimea, a logistical node for supplying Russian forces in the South of Ukraine. Notably, this strike occurred despite the reported- and satellite-confirmed- deployment of Pantsir S1, Russia's most modern short-range air defence systems. ISW, New York Times, BBC
US Hits Houthi Targets in Yemen, Following Tanker Strikes
The US launched 15 strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen last week on the 4th October. These come following Houthi strikes on tankers in the Red Sea at the start of the month using missiles and unmanned surface vessels as well as failed missile attacks on US Navy ships. These included a Liberian, Panamanian and British-flagged tanker. No casualties were reported on any of the vessels but there have been reports of oil leaking from the struck vessels. The US has also confirmed that it has lost another MQ-9 Reaper drone over Yemen. Operation Prosperity Guardian looks to continue for the foreseeable future. BBC, Reuters, The Independent
Little Optimism for Congo-Rwanda Peace Negotiations
Hopes of a peaceful resolution to the ongoing diplomatic and military dispute between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda suffered a setback this week as both governments levelled accusations at one another during the biennial Francophonie diplomatic summit currently taking place in France. Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner reiterated her government’s claim that the Rwandan government is complicit in arming and funding the Tutsi-led M23 rebel group who have been fighting an insurgency in the east of the DRC since 2021, a claim supported by the UN and wider international community, yet denied by Rwanda themselves. Although reports indicated an agreement between the countries had been reached over the summer, this has now broken down, with both sides accusing the other of blocking any movements towards decreased hostilities in the current. Reuters, VOA News, Africa News
13 Children Killed as Sudanese Conflict Rages On
At least 13 children between the ages of 6 and 17 were killed after the Sudanese government launched airstrikes targeting the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group in the North Darfur region on Friday night. Airstrikes targeting the towns of Al Kuma and Mellit are reported to have killed 45 in total and injured several more, marking the latest escalation of a bloody civil war that has been ongoing since April 2023 following the outbreak of fighting in the capital Khartoum. Aid workers helping to prevent potential famine have also been both thwarted and targeted by the rival sides, leading to growing fears about rising food insecurity in the war-torn country. UNICEF, Africa News, Reuters
Middle East and North Africa
Brought to you by Team Manager Alexander Belay, William Radley, Toby Walton, and Lucy Chambers
Iran’s Second Strike on Israel
On the 1st October, Iran launched its second missile strike on Israel following the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon. In this, a handful of Iran's 182 ballistic missiles targeted and hit three Israeli airbases in the region, Nevatim, Hatzerim and Tel Nof, as well as targetting the Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv. Whilst Israel has vowed to take revenge, international state actors are imploring Israel to show restraint. Nonetheless, the strikes symbolise the deterioration of traditional conventions in the region to where direct exchanges between Israel and Iran now lie within the scope of acceptable parameters of state action. NY Times, Reuters, Tehran Times
Israel Increases Ground Invasion in Southern Lebanon
On Tuesday, Israel expanded its military operation in southern Lebanon deploying an additional division containing thousands of troops. The announcement follows the death of Hezbollah senior commander, Suhail Hussein Husseini, killed in a targeted IDF strike in Lebanon's capital, Beirut, earlier that morning. Despite the loss of many of the militias’ highest commanders after weeks of heavy Israeli airstrikes, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's acting secretary general, said the group's military capabilities were "fine". The Guardian, BBC, Euro News
Hezbollah Leader Successor Chosen?
Following the assassination of Hezbollah commander Hassan Nasrallah, speculation regarding who the next leader will be indicates Hashem Safiedinne is the likely choice, as reported by multiple Lebanese security sources. Safiedinne is a well-known operator in the group who has had strong ties with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. With the ongoing conflict between the group and Israel, it is uncertain how significant a change in leadership will impact policy towards Israel. Sky News, Times of India, France 24
Tunisian President Saied Re-Elected
Tunisian President Kais Saied has been re-elected in a landslide victory, securing 90.7% of votes. 5 opposing parties called on voters to boycott the elections which saw a turnout of only 28.8%, less than half that of the 2014 elections (the first held following the Arab spring). Following his re-election Saied vowed to ‘cleanse the country of the corrupt, traitors and conspirators’. Set against an increasingly volatile global context this landslide victory highlights divisions far more than national unity. BBC, Reuters, NPR
Europe
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Toby Walton and Bryn Jones
Slovakia's Prime Minister Determined to Block Ukraine's Bid to Join NATO
Slovakia's PM, Robert Fico, an outspoken critic of the West's military and financial aid to Ukraine, declared he would "never agree to Ukraine's membership in NATO" and repeated that "Ukraine's accession to NATO would be a good basis for a third world war" in an interview with state-funded broadcaster, STVR, on Sunday. Previously, Fico has blamed the West for fuelling the conflict and since resecuring power last Autumn has reversed the last Cabinet's policy of providing material aid to Ukraine and instead pursued closer relationships with Moscow and Hungarian Prime Minister, Victor Orbán. Politico, Euro News, MSN
Russian Security Threats to European Streets
On Tuesday MI5 claimed Russia is aiming to create "sustained mayhem on British and European streets" through terror-related threats. The Head of MI5, Ken McCallum, claims the UK’s leading role in the support of Ukraine means that the UK “looms large in the fevered imagination of Putin's regime". This has led to the UK's terror threat being raised to ‘substantial’, meaning a threat is likely from the Russian and Iranian states as well as a resurgent ISIS. BBC News, Financial Times, Politico
North America
Brought to you by Team Manager Humphrey Schyler and Caine McCartney
US Election Update: Where Do the Two Contenders Stand a Month From the Election
It seems an age ago since July when US politics was shaken, with Biden dropping out of the race and Donald Trump surviving an assassination attempt by the finest of margins. But it is the fine margins which currently separate Kamala Harris and Donald Trump under a month from the election, so what are the key areas that will swing the US blue or red in 2024? BBC News, The Independent, Financial Times
Harris Appears On "Call Her Daddy"
In a bid to broaden electoral appeal among younger women, Harris appeared on the podcast "Call Her Daddy", discussing issues mostly related to abortion and women's rights, accompanied by a decrease in the number of television appearances. It highlights the shifting makeup of the American electoral base that has compelled politicians to appear more often on podcasts, YouTube, and TikTok, to target demographics of younger generations. Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, adopted a similar approach by appearing on Lex Friedman, the All In Podcast, and the Logan Paul show, of which the audience is predominantly younger males, a demographic projected to shift right in this election. WSJ, The Hill
Latin America
Brought to you by William Radley and Tom Taylor
Mexican Mayor Beheaded Mere Days into Tenure
Alejandro Arcos Catalán was murdered mere days after taking office as the Mayor of Chilpancingo. His death followed those of his interior security minister and the City Council's secretary general. Although nobody has claimed responsibility for Catalan's death, it is widely believed to be linked with Cartel-related crime, which continues to plague Mexican cities. NY Times, The Guardian, Al Jazeera
Tragic Attacks on Haitian Communities Leaves 70 Dead
It has been four devastating days for the island of Haiti following a brutal massacre of 70 people enacted by gangs. This is just the latest of a series of coordinated attacks by small militias across the island involving killings and kidnappings. Haitian authorities have declared a state of emergency and are working tirelessly with the UN to suppress these groups. BBC, Reuters, The Guardian
Policy Perspectives
International Law
Brought to you by Lucile Mario-Floch, Patrick Brice, and Dan Hillier
US DoJ Cracks Down on Antitrust Enforcement and its Implications for International Corporate Law
The US Department of Justice has initiated lawsuits against global companies Visa and Google for monopolistic practices, following regulators’ efforts to reverse the decline in antitrust enforcement we have seen in recent years. Penalties from antitrust enforcement, globally, dropped by $8.4bn between 2021 and 2023, likely due to a trickle-down effect from Covid-19, and legislative reforms in the digital sector occupying significant regulator time. However, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission expects “bang for [their] buck” in antitrust enforcement in 2024, which will undoubtedly manifest significant change in business strategy and consumer protection worldwide. Financial Times, Legal Business Minds, A&O Shearman
German Court Sides With Artificial Intelligence Outfit on Copyright Claim
Earlier this month, the Hamburg Regional Court became the first in Germany to rule on using web-scraped images to train AI. Photographer Robert Kneschke sued non-profit AI company LAION for using his photographs to train their AI image generators, turning the heads of many interested EU AI developers. In a surprising verdict, the German court found LAION’s use of Mr Kneschke’s photos compliant with EU copyright law, suggesting a lenient approach to issues regarding the training of artificial intelligence. Whilst it is unclear whether this will become a precedent across EU courts, with Mr Knechke’s counsel is already looking at options for an appeal. Global Legal Post, Hogan Lovells Insight, Pinsent Masons
Hungary's 'Sovereignty' Law results in an EU referral to the European Court of Justice
In December 2023, Hungary passed a law named ‘The Defence of Sovereignty’, to investigate foreign political funding and election interference. Following a letter of notice in February, the European Commission has referred Hungary to the European Court of Justice this week. It reasons the law violates the right to private family life, freedom of expression and association; rights enshrined in the European Charter. The Commission also argues it disproportionally affects journalists and civil organisations. It is the latest stage in a public conflict between PM Viktor Orban and the Commission over democratic backsliding and his uncomfortable relationship with Putin. Bloomberg, Reuters, Al Jazeera
Global Economy and Tech
Brought to you by Adit Banta and Alexander Belay
The United States’ Long-Term Job Market Woes
Over the last couple of years, US job market growth has been substantially decelerating, with job growth averaging about 39,000 per month over the last three months, compared to an average of 79,000 in the last year and 137,000 between 2015 and 2019. Similarly, studies indicate that recent technological advancements, coupled with the private sector expansion, have reduced the incentive for non-college-educated workers to enter the labour force, and have reduced job security and confidence, thus leading to higher resignation rates. This tends to be an economic risk that can be serious over time, as this shrinking workforce will eventually inhibit growth and add to the possibility of recession if not addressed. CNBC, BBC, BNN Bloomberg
China’s Equity Tumble
China’s equity markets faced a significant sell-off this week following the reopening of markets after the 75th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Whilst equities rallied in the early trading hours of Monday following a series of policy announcements seeking to boost economic growth, investors later grew weary of the prospects of no significant stimulus package announcements. China’s primary equity indices, such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, faced their worst day since the pandemic on Wednesday. Regardless, institutional investors are still optimistic and bullish on the long-term prospects of China’s equity markets. Bloomberg, NY Times, The Guardianong-term
Climate and Environment
Brought to you by Co-Team Managers Megan Spratt and Daniel Rodrigues
Rising Hurricanes Fuelled by Climate Change
Hurricane Helene was between 200-500 times more likely due to human-caused global warming. Category 4/5 (the most severe) hurricanes are set to increase by 10% if the world continues to warm. This is very significant as it vividly represents the consequences of climate change and the drastic need to lower global temperatures. The Guardian, Sky News, BBC
Climate Change Forcing Border Changes
Melting Glaciers due to climate change have forced Italy and Switzerland to redraw borders. The increased melting of 4% volume in 2023 around the Matterhorn has led both countries to sign a new border agreement. This is very significant as it displays the tangible effects of climate change and the urgent need for global action against planetary warming. Sky News, BBC, The Independent
Sparks Fly Over Carbon Capture Pledges
The UK Government has pledged almost £22 billion for carbon capture projects in former industrial areas to reduce atmospheric carbon emissions and stimulate growth. This move has drawn criticism from political opponents considering current concerns over problems in public finance, and from environmental activists questioning the strategy’s effectiveness. BBC News, The Guardian, Washington Post
Global Health
Brought to you by Team Manager Thecla Richardson
UK To Consider Legalising Euthanasia
On October 16th, UK MPs will consider proposals to become the 32nd country to grant terminally ill people in England and Wales with six months or fewer to live the ‘right to choose to shorten their deaths’, nine years after rejecting a similar proposal. Labour MP Kim Leadbeater will introduce a bill to provide ‘choice’ over palliative care, as well as to provide reassurance, relief, dignity and protection for terminally ill people and their loved ones. The current UK Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Wes Streeting, has suggested that the state of palliative care in the UK is not ready for assisted dying, and politicians across all major parties remain concerned that vulnerable patients could face pressure to end their lives. Al Jazeera, Reuters, Telegraph
Rwanda Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) Outbreak
An outbreak of Marburg Virus Disease was detected in Rwanda in late September, with 46 cases and 12 deaths reported since. The highly infectious disease is similar to Ebola, with symptoms including fever, muscle pains, diarrhoea, vomiting and, in some cases, death through extreme blood loss. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), MVD kills half of the people it infects. Rwanda has started vaccine trials and has introduced travel restrictions in an effort to control the outbreak. Reuters, BBC, WHO
Human Rights
Brought to you by Team Manager Toby Walton and Nathan Carter
Human Rights Group Warns Haitian Gangs Are Increasingly Recruiting Child Soldiers
In a report published on Wednesday, Human Rights Watch found that more children, "driven by hunger and poverty" are being forced to join the ranks of Haiti's armed groups. The report states that young boys are commonly used as foot soldiers and spies while girls are sexually abused and forced into domestic servitude. Haitian gangs have increased their influence using new methods, such as social media and music, to draw in child recruits, in the context of escalating violence and political crises which have weakened state institutions. Al Jazeera, Reuters, Arab News
Azerbaijan's Crackdown Before COP29
Azerbaijani authorities have escalated their crackdown on civic activists, journalists, and human rights defenders through politically motivated prosecutions just months before hosting COP29, the UN Climate Change Conference. The government enforces restrictive laws on NGOs, making it nearly impossible for them to register, access funding, or operate legally, pushing unregistered groups to work at great personal risk and vulnerability to criminal charges. Amnesty International, Politico, Human Rights Watch
Battleships
Brought to you by Team Manager Jacob Godley and Nathan Carter
HMNZS Manawanui Runs Aground and Sinks Off Samoan Coast
An RNZN survey vessel has run aground off the coast of Samoa in an event which has not occurred since WWII. Out of the 75 crew and passengers, nobody was injured. However, HMNZS Manawanui is now at the centre of attention to prevent environmental damage as a consequence of the sinking. Former Royal Navy officer Cdr. Gray was praised for her decision to evacuate, however, a court enquiry will become underway to establish how she ran aground and sunk on a reef. The Guardian, BBC, Forces News
HMS Agamemnon Launched
The Royal Navy's most advanced hunter-killer submarine, HMS Agamemnon, has been launched at BAE Systems' facility in Barrow, making it the sixth of seven Astute-class submarines built for the UK’s Silent Service. Nicknamed ‘Awesome Aggie,’ HMS Agamemnon will protect the UK’s nuclear deterrent, shield aircraft carrier task groups, gather intelligence, and carry out precision strikes, ensuring the UK’s maritime and national security for decades to come. Royal Navy, National Interest, Naval Technology